In the wake of the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic, many households are struggling to make their rent payments. The economic impact has been unevenly distributed across the country, based upon varying levels of infection and differing regulations on local businesses and economic activity.
Additionally, states vary in terms of their housing and rental stock and the amount of economic stress on their residents. While the CDC has issued a nationwide moratorium on evictions, the application of this moratorium has been uneven, with some state courts ignoring the order, and many landlords and tenants unaware of the existence of the moratorium. There are also additional steps tenants must take to qualify for the moratorium, which include restrictions on income and a requirement to seek government assistance. The moratorium also expires at the end of January 2021.
In this analysis, AdvisorSmith examined data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey to determine which states had the highest proportion of renters who are at risk of eviction. We calculated the percentage of households that are behind on their rent payments, which we combined with data on the percentage of late-paying households that expect to be evicted in the next two months, in order to find the states where renters are at highest risk of eviction.
States Where Renters Are at Highest Risk of Eviction
Nationwide, we found that approximately 17.1% of households were late or behind on their rent. Of these late paying households, about 49.1% expected to be evicted in the next two months. Approximately 8.4% of rental households nationwide were at risk of eviction based on our analysis.
South Carolina was the state with the highest risk of eviction. In this state, 33.9% of households were behind on their rent payments, and of these households, 62.2% expected to be evicted in the next two months. Statewide, 21.1% of rental households were at risk of eviction based on this survey data.
Maine had the lowest rate of housing stress for renters, with only 6.3% of households behind on their rent payments. Additionally, only 2.8% of late paying households in the state expected to be evicted in the next two months. Only 0.2% of Maine rental households were at risk of eviction based upon our analysis.
| Rank | State | Percent of Renters Behind on Rent Payments | Percent of Late Payers Likely to be Evicted in Next Two Months | Percent of Renters at Risk of Eviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina | 33.9% | 62.2% | 21.1% |
| 2 | Florida | 20.2% | 77.5% | 15.6% |
| 3 | Maryland | 27.3% | 56.6% | 15.4% |
| 4 | Arizona | 22.7% | 65.4% | 14.9% |
| 5 | Mississippi | 33.3% | 42.5% | 14.2% |
| 6 | Georgia | 22.1% | 58.9% | 13.0% |
| 7 | Delaware | 23.5% | 50.4% | 11.8% |
| 8 | Kansas | 18.6% | 62.0% | 11.5% |
| 9 | Ohio | 18.2% | 60.3% | 11.0% |
| 10 | Arkansas | 17.0% | 64.0% | 10.9% |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 20.2% | 53.8% | 10.8% |
| 12 | Utah | 17.1% | 62.9% | 10.8% |
| 13 | Louisiana | 21.3% | 49.9% | 10.6% |
| 14 | Connecticut | 15.2% | 67.3% | 10.2% |
| 15 | Nevada | 15.5% | 65.8% | 10.2% |
| 16 | South Dakota | 11.2% | 89.6% | 10.0% |
| 17 | North Carolina | 16.0% | 59.6% | 9.6% |
| 18 | Illinois | 20.0% | 47.1% | 9.4% |
| 19 | Michigan | 17.5% | 53.3% | 9.3% |
| 20 | Tennessee | 20.0% | 46.3% | 9.3% |
| 21 | New Jersey | 15.9% | 55.3% | 8.8% |
| 22 | Pennsylvania | 23.0% | 37.4% | 8.6% |
| 23 | New Mexico | 31.2% | 27.2% | 8.5% |
| 24 | Alaska | 15.7% | 53.2% | 8.4% |
| 25 | Indiana | 17.0% | 49.1% | 8.4% |
| 26 | Massachusetts | 15.8% | 51.0% | 8.1% |
| 27 | New York | 28.0% | 28.6% | 8.0% |
| 28 | Minnesota | 14.9% | 51.9% | 7.7% |
| 29 | Texas | 13.2% | 56.7% | 7.5% |
| 30 | Idaho | 12.1% | 54.8% | 6.6% |
| 31 | Rhode Island | 20.5% | 31.8% | 6.5% |
| 32 | New Hampshire | 12.6% | 51.0% | 6.4% |
| 33 | West Virginia | 18.5% | 33.6% | 6.2% |
| 34 | Nebraska | 14.1% | 43.6% | 6.1% |
| 35 | District of Columbia | 15.8% | 37.5% | 5.9% |
| 36 | Missouri | 10.3% | 53.9% | 5.6% |
| 37 | Montana | 12.3% | 39.7% | 4.9% |
| 38 | Wyoming | 13.0% | 37.2% | 4.8% |
| 39 | Washington | 12.5% | 37.5% | 4.7% |
| 40 | Kentucky | 14.8% | 31.7% | 4.7% |
| 41 | Virginia | 14.1% | 31.7% | 4.5% |
| 42 | North Dakota | 10.2% | 40.9% | 4.2% |
| 43 | Oregon | 9.3% | 44.3% | 4.1% |
| 44 | Alabama | 15.6% | 26.1% | 4.1% |
| 45 | California | 9.5% | 42.4% | 4.0% |
| 46 | Wisconsin | 10.0% | 38.2% | 3.8% |
| 47 | Iowa | 11.5% | 30.2% | 3.5% |
| 48 | Hawaii | 10.4% | 27.6% | 2.9% |
| 49 | Colorado | 8.4% | 32.7% | 2.7% |
| 50 | Vermont | 8.1% | 10.7% | 0.9% |
| 51 | Maine | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
Methodology
To determine the states where renters are at the highest risk of eviction, AdvisorSmith used data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. This survey is intended to measure household experiences during the coronavirus pandemic. We used data from Phase 3 of this survey, specifically from the Week 18 survey, which was conducted between October 28 and November 9.
This survey asks respondents across the country a series of questions about the state of their household. We examined two key metrics to determine the states where renters are at the highest risk of eviction. First, we calculated the percentage of households that are not current on rent payments, as a total of rental households that responded to the survey. We excluded households that did not respond to the question from both the numerator and denominator. Households in the denominator included those that are occupied without rent, those current on rent payments, and those behind on rent payments.
We also calculated the percentage of late-paying households that reported that they were either very likely or somewhat likely to be evicted in the next two months as a percentage of total late paying households. To determine the percentage of households at risk of eviction, we multiplied the percentage of households that were late on their rent by the percentage of late-paying households that are likely to be evicted in the next two months. The product of these two figures gives us the percentage of renting households that are at risk of eviction.
We then ranked the 50 states based upon the percentage of renting households that are at risk of eviction in the next two months to determine the states where renters are at the highest risk of eviction.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey – Phase 3, Week 18 Household Pulse Survey: October 28 – November 9
- Temporary Halt in Residential Evictions To Prevent the Further Spread of COVID-19
