Americans have a plethora of options when considering the types of neighborhoods they want to live in. Midsize cities offer the perfect environment for Americans who want a mix of city life and a small-town feel. In this report, AdvisorSmith examines the midsize cities in the United States whose populations are growing and shrinking the most quickly.
We examined the population growth in 226 midsize, incorporated American cities during the five-year period between 2014 and 2019, using population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Our study examined cities with populations between 100,000 and 250,000 residents at the end of the study period. To determine the fastest-growing cities, we calculated the compounded annual growth rate of the population during a five-year period.
We found that the average midsize city had a population growth rate of 0.8% per year among cities included in our analysis. The growth rates ranged from -1.0% up to 6.7% per year in population growth. Cities in the West and South dominated the list of fastest-growing small cities and were the majority of the shrinking cities. Read on to discover the fastest growing and shrinking midsize cities in the United States.
Fastest Growing Midsize Cities in the United States
1. Frisco, TX
Located in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Frisco is the fastest-growing midsize city in our study. In the late 1990s, suburban development in Frisco sparked rapid growth that continued into the 2000s. Frisco has sustained its fast growth rate, and it may be attributed to the city’s economic decisions, including aggressive pursuit of corporate employers, retail development, and entertainment attractions, like professional sports. Frisco is home to five professional sports teams: the Dallas Cowboys Headquarters, the Dallas Stars Headquarters, FC Dallas, the Frisco RoughRiders, the Texas Legends. Additionally, Frisco uses a fractional percent of local sales tax to fund the Frisco Economic Development Corporation, further contributing to spurring the regional economy. From 2014 to 2019, the population grew from 144,965 residents to 200,490 residents, for an annualized growth rate of 6.7%.
2. Meridian, ID
Meridian is located in Ada County, Idaho and is considered the state’s fastest-growing city. The annual growth rate of the city between 2014 and 2019 was 5.1% as the population grew from 89,174 residents to 114,161 residents. New residents are attracted to the city’s abundance of natural attractions as the city’s parks and recreation department manages 17 public parks. Blue Cross of Idaho, Citigroup, and Scentsy are a few of the major companies that are helping to drive the economy in Meridian.
3. McKinney, TX
A northeastern city in Texas, McKinney is situated in Collin County, Texas. The prominent public school system and abundance of employers such as Raytheon Space and Airborne Systems make the city an attractive place to live. The population of McKinney increased from 157,143 residents to 199,177 residents in the span of five years, from 2014 to 2019. The annual growth rate of the city during this time period was 4.9%.
4. Murfreesboro, TN
The largest suburb in Nashville, Murfreesboro is located in Rutherford County of central Tennessee. The city is home to Middle Tennessee State University, the second-largest university in the state. Music plays a large role in the city’s community as several music-oriented events occur in Murfreesboro annually such as the Main Street Jazzfest. From 2014 to 2019, Murfreesboro’s population grew from 120,808 residents to 146,900 residents. The annual growth rate for the city during this time period was 4.0%.
5. Bend, OR
Located in Deschutes County, Oregon, Bend is central Oregon’s largest city. The city is attractive to both its residents and visitors due to the abundance of natural attractions such as skiing, mountain biking, fishing, camping, and much more. Tourism serves as one of Bend’s largest economic sectors as the Cascade Lakes and Mount Bachelor ski resort draws in tourists from all over the world. The population of the city increased from 83,526 residents in 2014 to 100,421 residents in 2019, for an annualized growth rate of 3.8%.
Below is a list of the 50 fastest-growing midsize cities in the United States during 2014-2019. Texas led the study with 14 cities in the top 50, and the rest of the list was dominated by cities in California, Oregon, Arizona, and Florida. Other states that made the top 50 were South Dakota, North Carolina, Idaho, Colorado, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Carolina, Nevada, Indiana, and Washington. No midsize northeastern cities appeared in the top 50 list. Most of the top 40 midsize cities were located in the suburbs of metropolitan areas in southern and western states.
| Rank | City | State | Population (2014) | Population (2019) | Growth Rate 2014-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frisco | TX | 144,965 | 200,490 | 6.7% |
| 2 | Meridian | ID | 89,174 | 114,161 | 5.1% |
| 3 | McKinney | TX | 157,143 | 199,177 | 4.9% |
| 4 | Murfreesboro | TN | 120,808 | 146,900 | 4.0% |
| 5 | Bend | OR | 83,526 | 100,421 | 3.8% |
| 6 | Round Rock | TX | 112,665 | 133,372 | 3.4% |
| 7 | Port St. Lucie | FL | 172,669 | 201,846 | 3.2% |
| 8 | Cape Coral | FL | 168,365 | 194,495 | 2.9% |
| 9 | Pearland | TX | 106,027 | 122,460 | 2.9% |
| 10 | Chico | CA | 89,491 | 103,301 | 2.9% |
| 11 | League City | TX | 94,121 | 107,536 | 2.7% |
| 12 | College Station | TX | 103,469 | 117,911 | 2.6% |
| 13 | Midland | TX | 128,352 | 146,038 | 2.6% |
| 14 | Clovis | CA | 101,904 | 114,584 | 2.4% |
| 15 | Allen | TX | 94,215 | 105,623 | 2.3% |
| 16 | Edinburg | TX | 90,342 | 101,170 | 2.3% |
| 17 | Peoria | AZ | 157,770 | 175,961 | 2.2% |
| 18 | Tempe | AZ | 175,636 | 195,805 | 2.2% |
| 19 | Richardson | TX | 109,134 | 121,323 | 2.1% |
| 20 | Sparks | NV | 94,561 | 105,006 | 2.1% |
| 21 | Surprise | AZ | 127,880 | 141,664 | 2.1% |
| 22 | Denton | TX | 128,217 | 141,541 | 2.0% |
| 23 | Carmel | IN | 91,569 | 101,068 | 2.0% |
| 24 | Killeen | TX | 137,589 | 151,666 | 2.0% |
| 25 | Roseville | CA | 128,397 | 141,500 | 2.0% |
| 26 | Ontario | CA | 168,097 | 185,010 | 1.9% |
| 27 | Sioux Falls | SD | 167,050 | 183,793 | 1.9% |
| 28 | Lakeland | FL | 102,034 | 112,136 | 1.9% |
| 29 | Greeley | CO | 99,055 | 108,649 | 1.9% |
| 30 | Cary | NC | 155,439 | 170,282 | 1.8% |
| 31 | Jurupa Valley | CA | 100,080 | 109,527 | 1.8% |
| 32 | Hillsboro | OR | 99,827 | 109,128 | 1.8% |
| 33 | Thornton | CO | 129,479 | 141,464 | 1.8% |
| 34 | Wilmington | NC | 113,320 | 123,744 | 1.8% |
| 35 | Spokane Valley | WA | 92,569 | 101,060 | 1.8% |
| 36 | Palm Bay | FL | 106,237 | 115,552 | 1.7% |
| 37 | Bellevue | WA | 136,275 | 148,164 | 1.7% |
| 38 | Fort Collins | CO | 156,804 | 170,243 | 1.7% |
| 39 | Salem | OR | 160,675 | 174,365 | 1.6% |
| 40 | Carrollton | TX | 128,349 | 139,248 | 1.6% |
| 41 | Clarksville | TN | 145,899 | 158,146 | 1.6% |
| 42 | North Charleston | SC | 106,754 | 115,382 | 1.6% |
| 43 | Sandy Springs | GA | 101,371 | 109,452 | 1.5% |
| 44 | Odessa | TX | 114,430 | 123,334 | 1.5% |
| 45 | Fargo | ND | 115,715 | 124,662 | 1.5% |
| 46 | Eugene | OR | 160,260 | 172,622 | 1.5% |
| 47 | Murrieta | CA | 108,037 | 116,223 | 1.5% |
| 48 | Elk Grove | CA | 162,701 | 174,775 | 1.4% |
| 49 | West Palm Beach | FL | 104,314 | 111,955 | 1.4% |
| 50 | Waco | TX | 129,860 | 139,236 | 1.4% |
Fastest Shrinking Midsize Cities in the United States
The table below shows 50 midsize cities in the United States that were shrinking the fastest from 2014-2019. California was at the top of the list with 15 cities. Southern and western states each had 16 cities in the top 50, while there were 11 cities from the Midwest and only seven in the Northeast. Although many cities on the list show signs of economic decline, some of the cities on the list are very prosperous. Wealthy, midsize cities were also included on the list such as Thousand Oaks in California. The data displays how economic growth is not always directly correlated to population growth, as the population dwindles in these types of cities due to poor housing affordability and low levels of construction of new housing.
| Rank | City | State | Population (2014) | Population (2019) | Growth Rate 2014-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson | MS | 172,014 | 160,628 | -1.4% |
| 2 | Shreveport | LA | 198,259 | 187,112 | -1.2% |
| 3 | Peoria | IL | 115,955 | 110,417 | -1.0% |
| 4 | Baton Rouge | LA | 227,851 | 220,236 | -0.7% |
| 5 | Springfield | IL | 117,489 | 114,230 | -0.6% |
| 6 | Rockford | IL | 149,378 | 145,609 | -0.5% |
| 7 | Mesquite | TX | 144,508 | 140,937 | -0.5% |
| 8 | Inglewood | CA | 110,840 | 108,151 | -0.5% |
| 9 | Columbus | GA | 200,563 | 195,769 | -0.5% |
| 10 | Bridgeport | CT | 147,870 | 144,399 | -0.5% |
| 11 | Hampton | VA | 137,680 | 134,510 | -0.5% |
| 12 | Torrance | CA | 146,845 | 143,592 | -0.4% |
| 13 | West Covina | CA | 107,447 | 105,101 | -0.4% |
| 14 | Santa Rosa | CA | 180,585 | 176,753 | -0.4% |
| 15 | Norwalk | CA | 106,189 | 103,949 | -0.4% |
| 16 | Pasadena | TX | 154,447 | 151,227 | -0.4% |
| 17 | Hartford | CT | 124,665 | 122,105 | -0.4% |
| 18 | Mobile | AL | 192,582 | 188,720 | -0.4% |
| 19 | Burbank | CA | 104,405 | 102,511 | -0.4% |
| 20 | Evansville | IN | 120,153 | 117,979 | -0.4% |
| 21 | Waterbury | CT | 109,524 | 107,568 | -0.4% |
| 22 | Downey | CA | 113,091 | 111,126 | -0.3% |
| 23 | Rochester | NY | 209,329 | 205,695 | -0.3% |
| 24 | Topeka | KS | 127,489 | 125,310 | -0.3% |
| 25 | Garden Grove | CA | 174,423 | 171,644 | -0.3% |
| 26 | Norfolk | VA | 246,576 | 242,742 | -0.3% |
| 27 | Montgomery | AL | 201,435 | 198,525 | -0.3% |
| 28 | Thousand Oaks | CA | 128,636 | 126,813 | -0.3% |
| 29 | Syracuse | NY | 144,331 | 142,327 | -0.3% |
| 30 | Lancaster | CA | 159,634 | 157,601 | -0.3% |
| 31 | Warren | MI | 135,666 | 133,943 | -0.3% |
| 32 | Newport News | VA | 181,522 | 179,225 | -0.3% |
| 33 | Aurora | IL | 200,189 | 197,757 | -0.2% |
| 34 | Palmdale | CA | 156,770 | 155,079 | -0.2% |
| 35 | Birmingham | AL | 211,651 | 209,403 | -0.2% |
| 36 | Davenport | IA | 102,471 | 101,590 | -0.2% |
| 37 | Miami Gardens | FL | 110,943 | 110,001 | -0.2% |
| 38 | Beaumont | TX | 117,812 | 116,825 | -0.2% |
| 39 | Macon | GA | 154,329 | 153,159 | -0.2% |
| 40 | Akron | OH | 199,008 | 197,597 | -0.1% |
| 41 | Independence | MO | 117,505 | 116,672 | -0.1% |
| 42 | Gresham | OR | 110,029 | 109,381 | -0.1% |
| 43 | Orange | CA | 139,424 | 138,669 | -0.1% |
| 44 | Dayton | OH | 141,117 | 140,407 | -0.1% |
| 45 | Wichita Falls | TX | 105,208 | 104,683 | -0.1% |
| 46 | Springfield | MA | 154,376 | 153,606 | -0.1% |
| 47 | Simi Valley | CA | 126,239 | 125,613 | -0.1% |
| 48 | Paterson | NJ | 145,911 | 145,233 | -0.1% |
| 49 | Ventura | CA | 109,535 | 109,106 | -0.1% |
| 50 | Pomona | CA | 152,225 | 151,691 | -0.1% |
Methodology
In this study, we analyzed the population growth rates of midsize cities in the United States. Cities selected for this analysis had a minimum population of 100,000 and a maximum population of 250,000 in the year 2019. This study measured the compounded annual growth rate of city populations between 2014 through 2019 based upon population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
After calculating the compounded annual growth rate of the population for each city, we ranked the cities based upon their growth rates and found the top 50 midsize cities that are growing the most quickly and the 50 midsize cities that are shrinking the fastest.
Sources
1. U.S. Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals: 2010-2019