Americans have an abundance of options when choosing a community to live in. For many Americans, large cities offer a vibrant, fast-paced lifestyle, along with access to employment and shared services. In this report, AdvisorSmith examines the large cities in the United States whose populations are growing and shrinking the fastest.
We examined the population growth in 89 large American incorporated cities during the five-year period between 2014 and 2019, based upon population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. We considered cities that had populations of at least 250,000 residents, and we calculated the compounded annual growth rate in population during the study period.
We found that the average large city had population growth of 0.8% per year among cities included in our analysis. The growth rates ranged from -1.1% up to 3.1% annualized population growth. Cities in the West and the South dominated the list of fastest growing large cities, taking all of the top 25 spots. Cities in the Northeast and the Midwest accounted for eight of the top 10 fastest-shrinking large cities. Read on to discover the fastest-growing and shrinking large cities in the United States.
Fastest Growing Large Cities in the United States
1. Henderson, NV
Just southeast of Las Vegas, Henderson is situated in Clark County, Nevada and is the second-largest city in the state. Due to the close proximity to Las Vegas, residents are enticed by the attractions offered by this tourist destination. In addition, an increasing number of restaurants, casino resorts, concert venues, and shopping malls have opened up in the city, adding to the activities for residents to engage in. Entertainment services such as casinos and resorts remain one of the top employers in the city. From 2014 to 2019, the population of Henderson increased from 274,255 residents to 320,189 residents. The annualized growth rate for the city during this period of time was 3.1%.
2. Irvine, CA
Located in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, Irvine is situated in Orange County, California. Many technology companies have their headquarters in Irvine, and the city is home to a plethora of collegiate institutions, including the University of California Irvine, Pepperdine University, and more. Residents are attracted to the city due to Irvine’s growing economy as technology and business initiatives continue to expand in the area. Younger Americans are enticed to live in the city as Irvine’s job market grows. Irvine’s population grew from 247,136 residents in 2014 to 287,401 residents in 2019, for an annualized growth rate of 3.06%.
3. Seattle, WA
Considered the northernmost large city in the United States, Seattle is located in King County, Washington and is the largest city in the state. The economy of the city is driven by a combination of technology giants and older industries. The business landscape is dominated by prominent companies headquartered in Seattle, Washington such as Nordstrom, Amazon, and Starbucks. In addition, the city is the port of Seattle, making the city a hub for fishing and trading. Residents of Seattle are also attracted by the vibrant culture of the city due to the many distinguished music groups such as the Seattle Symphony Orchestra and the Seattle Opera. The city’s population expanded from 670,109 residents to 753,675 residents in the time span from 2014 to 2019. The annualized growth rate for Seattle during this time period was 2.38%.
4. Gilbert, AZ
Just southeast of Phoenix, Gilbert is situated in Maricopa County, Arizona. Once known as the “Hay Shipping Capital of the World,” Gilbert has transformed from an agricultural center to an economically diverse suburb in the Phoenix metropolitan area. The largest employers in the city are the public school and health systems. Residents are attracted to the city due to Gilbert’s emphasis on safety and family life. Attractions for the community include the Hale Centre Theatre in downtown Gilbert, which offers tourists and residents musicals and stage plays. From 2014 to 2019, Gilbert’s population increased from 227,308 residents to 254,114 residents. The city’s annualized growth rate was 2.25%.
5. Fort Worth, TX
Located in northeastern Texas, Fort Worth is the fifth-largest city in the state and 13th-largest city in the United States. Formerly known as the center for cattle drives, the city has evolved into a hub for business as several major companies have headquarters in Fort Worth, such as the American Airlines group, Lockheed Martin, RadioShack, and Pier 1 Imports. The city is also home to an abundance of college communities such as Texas Christian University, Texas Wesleyan, and more. Residents are attracted to the vibrant art and music community in the city. Attractions in Fort Worth include the Van Cliburn International Piano Competition and the Kimbell Art Museum. The city’s population sprouted from 815,057 residents to 909,585 residents in the time period between 2014 and 2019. The annualized growth rate for Fort Worth was 2.22%.
Below is a list of the 50 fastest-growing large cities in the United States during 2014-2019. Texas and California topped the list, each with seven cities. Florida followed the two leaders with five cities. Overall, the list comprises mainly states in the western and southern regions of America. Only one Northeastern city made the list of the top 50, and only a handful of Midwestern cities made the top 50. Most of the fastest-growing large cities were located in major metropolitan areas, where the job markets are expanding.
| Rank | City | State | Population (2014) | Population (2019) | Growth Rate 2014-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henderson | NV | 274,255 | 320,189 | 3.1% |
| 2 | Irvine | CA | 247,136 | 287,401 | 3.1% |
| 3 | Seattle | WA | 670,109 | 753,675 | 2.4% |
| 4 | Gilbert | AZ | 227,308 | 254,114 | 2.3% |
| 5 | Fort Worth | TX | 815,057 | 909,585 | 2.2% |
| 6 | Scottsdale | AZ | 233,949 | 258,069 | 2.0% |
| 7 | Tampa | FL | 362,664 | 399,700 | 2.0% |
| 8 | North Las Vegas | NV | 228,680 | 251,974 | 2.0% |
| 9 | Durham | NC | 253,290 | 278,993 | 2.0% |
| 10 | Miami | FL | 425,110 | 467,963 | 1.9% |
| 11 | Atlanta | GA | 461,154 | 506,811 | 1.9% |
| 12 | Charlotte | NC | 807,400 | 885,708 | 1.9% |
| 13 | Orlando | FL | 262,469 | 287,442 | 1.8% |
| 14 | Mesa | AZ | 473,132 | 518,012 | 1.8% |
| 15 | Denver | CO | 664,582 | 727,211 | 1.8% |
| 16 | Reno | NV | 234,096 | 255,601 | 1.8% |
| 17 | Austin | TX | 901,170 | 978,908 | 1.7% |
| 18 | Chandler | AZ | 240,888 | 261,165 | 1.6% |
| 19 | Colorado Springs | CO | 442,361 | 478,221 | 1.6% |
| 20 | Phoenix | AZ | 1,555,445 | 1,680,992 | 1.6% |
| 21 | Raleigh | NC | 439,503 | 474,069 | 1.5% |
| 22 | San Antonio | TX | 1,435,456 | 1,547,253 | 1.5% |
| 23 | Aurora | CO | 352,660 | 379,289 | 1.5% |
| 24 | Las Vegas | NV | 607,976 | 651,319 | 1.4% |
| 25 | Jacksonville | FL | 852,494 | 911,507 | 1.3% |
| 26 | Columbus | OH | 841,673 | 898,553 | 1.3% |
| 27 | Washington | DC | 662,328 | 705,749 | 1.3% |
| 28 | Sacramento | CA | 482,762 | 513,624 | 1.2% |
| 29 | Lubbock | TX | 244,350 | 258,862 | 1.2% |
| 30 | Madison | WI | 245,848 | 259,680 | 1.1% |
| 31 | Chula Vista | CA | 259,885 | 274,492 | 1.1% |
| 32 | Minneapolis | MN | 407,067 | 429,606 | 1.1% |
| 33 | Portland | OR | 620,510 | 654,741 | 1.1% |
| 34 | Lincoln | NE | 274,128 | 289,102 | 1.1% |
| 35 | Oklahoma City | OK | 621,639 | 655,057 | 1.1% |
| 36 | Kansas City | MO | 470,629 | 495,327 | 1.0% |
| 37 | St. Petersburg | FL | 252,225 | 265,351 | 1.0% |
| 38 | Glendale | AZ | 239,964 | 252,381 | 1.0% |
| 39 | Greensboro | NC | 282,261 | 296,710 | 1.0% |
| 40 | Dallas | TX | 1,279,098 | 1,343,573 | 1.0% |
| 41 | Oakland | CA | 412,901 | 433,031 | 1.0% |
| 42 | Bakersfield | CA | 366,954 | 384,145 | 0.9% |
| 43 | Boston | MA | 662,855 | 692,600 | 0.9% |
| 44 | Riverside | CA | 317,702 | 331,360 | 0.8% |
| 45 | Arlington | TX | 382,721 | 398,854 | 0.8% |
| 46 | Nashville | TN | 645,259 | 670,820 | 0.8% |
| 47 | Stockton | CA | 301,062 | 312,697 | 0.8% |
| 48 | Laredo | TX | 252,734 | 262,491 | 0.8% |
| 49 | Fort Wayne | IN | 260,570 | 270,402 | 0.7% |
| 50 | Lexington | KY | 311,784 | 323,152 | 0.7% |
Fastest Shrinking Large Cities in the United States
The table below shows the 15 large cities in the United States with shrinking populations between 2014-2019. The Midwest had 6 cities on the list that shrunk in population during the study period, followed by the West and Northeast, with four cities each. Memphis, TN was the only southern city that shrunk in population over the study period. The list of shrinking cities included both cities in economic decline, as well as powerhouse cities such as Chicago and New York, which suffer from housing affordability challenges.
| Rank | City | State | Population (2014) | Population (2019) | Growth Rate 2014-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis | MO | 317,399 | 300,576 | -1.1% |
| 2 | Baltimore | MD | 623,587 | 593,490 | -1.0% |
| 3 | Anchorage | AK | 299,893 | 288,000 | -0.8% |
| 4 | Toledo | OH | 280,712 | 272,779 | -0.6% |
| 5 | Cleveland | OH | 390,871 | 381,009 | -0.5% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | PA | 305,964 | 300,286 | -0.4% |
| 7 | Detroit | MI | 682,609 | 670,031 | -0.4% |
| 8 | Milwaukee | WI | 600,664 | 590,157 | -0.4% |
| 9 | Buffalo | NY | 259,548 | 255,284 | -0.3% |
| 10 | Long Beach | CA | 469,109 | 462,628 | -0.3% |
| 11 | Honolulu | HI | 349,561 | 345,064 | -0.3% |
| 12 | Chicago | IL | 2,727,066 | 2,693,976 | -0.2% |
| 13 | New York | NY | 8,433,806 | 8,336,817 | -0.2% |
| 14 | Memphis | TN | 654,990 | 651,073 | -0.1% |
| 15 | Santa Ana | CA | 333,431 | 332,318 | -0.1% |
Methodology
Using population estimates from 2014 through 2019 provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, our study measured the compounded annual growth rate of population for large cities in the United States. To be considered a large city in our analysis, cities had to meet the constraint of a minimum population of 250,000 residents in 2019.
We ranked the cities based upon their growth rates after calculating the compounded annual growth rate of the population for each city. After examining the data, we determined the top 50 fastest-growing large cities and top 15 fastest-shrinking large cities.
Sources
1. U.S. Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals: 2010-2019